China's 2025 Urban Property Paradox | Generated by AI
Question: What are unpopular opinions about selling a house in big cities in China in 2025?
Answer:
Selling a house in China’s major cities (Tier 1 hubs like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen) in 2025 remains a challenging endeavor amid the ongoing property downturn, but several unpopular opinions emerge from discussions among economists, investors, and online commentators. These views often challenge the mainstream narrative of an imminent rebound or total collapse, instead emphasizing structural shifts, long-term pain, and counterintuitive opportunities. Below, I’ve compiled key unpopular opinions drawn from recent analyses and social media discourse, focusing on why they might be “unpopular” (e.g., they contradict hopes for quick stabilization or portray the crisis as a deliberate, beneficial reset).
1. The “managed decline” is intentional and beneficial—don’t fight it by selling now
- Opinion: Beijing’s policies aren’t failing to revive the market; they’re deliberately engineering a slow contraction to burst the bubble and make housing more affordable for young buyers in big cities. Selling in 2025 could mean missing out on post-crash value, as the government pushes workers toward smaller cities with cheaper homes.
- Why unpopular? Most sellers panic-sell to cut losses, viewing the slump as a policy blunder rather than a strategic purge of speculation. This view sees the crisis as “good medicine” for affordability, with new home prices in Tier 1 cities dipping only 0.7% YoY as of September 2025, while secondary sales rise 12.1% in major markets.
- Implication for sellers: Hold if underwater; prices may stabilize in core areas by late 2025, but expect 1.5–2.5% further drops overall.
2. Tier 1 cities are “superstar” exceptions—selling here is a bad idea compared to lower tiers
- Opinion: Even with national oversupply (762 million sqm unsold inventory as of August 2025), big cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen will absorb demand from “upgraders” and high earners, bottoming out prices in 1–2 years. Selling now locks in losses, as these hubs remain magnets for talent despite depopulation trends.
- Why unpopular? Broad media coverage highlights the “endless slump,” leading many to equate all urban markets. Yet, first-tier resilience (e.g., Shanghai luxury sales propping up averages) contrasts with Tier 3 ghosts towns, where apartments outnumber residents 2:1.
- Implication for sellers: Inventory turnover in 100 cities is at 27.4 months, but Tier 1 could hit healthy levels by 2027; secondary prices fell 3.2% YoY but show monthly upticks in 24 cities.
3. Secondary market surge is a trap—it’s cannibalizing new sales and hurting developers
- Opinion: The 12.1% YoY rise in existing home sales (876,700 units in 30 key cities, Jan–Jun 2025) looks like recovery, but it’s actually shifting demand away from new builds, starving developers of cash and prolonging the crisis. Sellers should avoid dumping into this “cannibalized” pool.
- Why unpopular? Optimists hail secondary resilience as a stabilization sign, ignoring how it erodes developer debt repayments and keeps primary prices soft (down 3.8% forecasted for 2025).
- Implication for sellers: Used homes in big cities dropped 5–20% YoY, but surging volume could stabilize your sale price—though at the cost of broader market drag.
4. Nearly 40% of recent buyers are already underwater—selling crystallizes massive losses
- Opinion: With second-hand prices reverting to 2018 levels, ~38% of homes bought since 2018 (and 56% since 2015) are now worth less than mortgages. Selling in 2025 isn’t “cutting losses”—it’s surrendering to a deflationary trap where household wealth evaporates, but government won’t let banks fail.
- Why unpopular? Admitting this scale of negative equity shatters the “China dream” of property as a safe asset; many prefer denial or hopes for bailouts.
- Implication for sellers: In big cities, prices fell at the fastest pace in a year (29 straight months of declines across 70 cities), but policy like mortgage subsidies could ease by Q2 2026.
5. The crisis won’t end until 2027–2030—selling now is smarter than waiting for a “bottom” that never comes
- Opinion: Former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei is spot-on: contraction lasts 5+ years, with Tier 1 bottoms in 1–2 years but lower areas declining longer. Beijing prioritizes “destocking” over booms, so sell in 2025 to redeploy capital into tech/exports amid the “slow bleed.”
- Why unpopular? It defies rosy forecasts (e.g., stabilization by H2 2025) and paints the government’s hands-off approach as pragmatic, not negligent.
- Implication for sellers: Sales for top 100 developers down 28.1% in 2024, projected 8% drop in 2025; market value halved since 2021 (from 18.2T to ~9T yuan).
These opinions reflect a polarized 2025 landscape: green shoots in luxury Tier 1 segments amid broader deflation. Sellers in big cities face 30–70% drops from peaks, but holding risks further erosion if exports falter. Consult local data, as regional variances (e.g., Shanghai up 0.6% MoM in Jan) matter.
References:
- China’s Property Stock Rebound Faces a Reality Check in 2025
- China’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025
-
[The View Optimism in China’s property market is well-deserved, with caution](https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3300786/optimism-chinas-property-market-well-deserved-caution) - China’s Real Estate Market: Where do things stand? What can be expected in 2025?
- Real Estate Woes in China: Key Issues
- Why China’s real estate market is still searching for a bottom
- China’s Housing Market Shows Signs of Stabilizing
- Surging Secondary Sales To Stabilize China Proper
- China’s property slump is far from bottoming. But Beijing is prioritizing tech growth
- Foreign Investors in China Real Estate Face Losses and Distressed Sales
- Michael Pettis on property contraction
- OK Then on Tier 1 appeal
- Thuc Duyen on bursting the bubble
- Agathe Demarais on crisis persistence
- Glenn on low systemic risk
- Caixin Global on managed decline
- EndGame Macro on slow unwinding
- GK on destocking priority
- Shanghai Macro Strategist on underwater mortgages