He Qinglian Critiques China's Current State | Generated by AI
Question: What are He Qinglian’s recent views on China?
Answer:
He Qinglian, a prominent Chinese economist and dissident living in the United States since 2001, remains a sharp critic of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regime, focusing on its economic vulnerabilities, political authoritarianism, and social control mechanisms. Her recent commentary (primarily from 2024–2025) portrays China as a system in “crumbling but not collapsing” mode—a phrase from her 2017 book co-authored with Cheng Xiaonong—where structural decay persists without immediate implosion. She emphasizes the CCP’s prioritization of regime security over genuine economic reform, leading to stagnation, inequality, and increasing isolation amid U.S.-led global pressures. Below is a summary of her key recent views, drawn from her X posts and referenced analyses.
Economic Vulnerabilities and Failed Reforms
- Stagnant Growth and “China+1” Backfire: He Qinglian argues that China’s export-driven model is unraveling due to the U.S. “China+1” strategy, which encourages supply chain diversification away from China. She notes that post-2018 tariffs and restrictions have forced companies to relocate to countries like Vietnam and India, but recent U.S. measures (e.g., 46% tariffs on Vietnam in 2025) are “clipping the skirt edges” by targeting these rerouting hubs. This, she says, exposes China’s overreliance on indirect trade and erodes its manufacturing edge, with no easy recovery. In a November 2025 post, she detailed how the U.S. now holds an advantage in “flank battles” against China’s economic circumvention tactics.
- Real Estate and Household Wealth Erosion: Echoing her long-standing warnings, she highlights the 2024–2025 property crisis as a tipping point, where collapsing prices threaten 70% of household assets tied to real estate. She predicts this will shrink personal wealth, exacerbate unemployment, and fuel social discontent without CCP intervention, as the regime avoids bailouts to prevent moral hazard.
- No Path Out of the “Three Gorges Dam” Trap: In a 2025 essay critiqued by economist Zhao Xiao, she describes China’s economy as trapped in a civilizational “Three Gorges” impasse—overbuilt on fragile foundations of debt, corruption, and state control. Reforms like the 2024 Third Plenum are performative, she claims, prioritizing tech self-reliance over market liberalization, which dooms long-term innovation.
Political Authoritarianism and Social Control
- Regime Prioritizing Stability Over Prosperity: He Qinglian views Xi Jinping’s policies as a shift from growth to “security projects,” using nationalism and surveillance to mask internal failures. She critiques the CCP’s handling of unemployment and inequality, noting how it sacrifices generations (e.g., youth “lying flat” amid job scarcity) for elite control, drawing parallels to historical purges.
- Criticism of Global Engagement: While acknowledging China’s pragmatic adaptations (e.g., learning from the West), she warns that its “wolf warrior” diplomacy and Belt and Road Initiative are backfiring, isolating Beijing amid rising global tariffs and alliances like BRICS expansions. In April 2025 posts, she dismissed CCP fantasies of negotiating tariff relief, calling U.S. delays tactical to squeeze concessions.
Broader Societal and Global Implications
- Moral and Cultural Decay: Consistent with her earlier works like The Pitfalls of Modernization (1998, banned in China), she laments the erosion of ethics under CCP rule, where state propaganda fosters blind loyalty over critical thinking. Recent posts (e.g., January 2024) stress that without faith and moral anchors, authoritarianism breeds tragedy, even in ostensibly prosperous systems.
- U.S.-China Decoupling as Inevitable: She supports U.S. tariffs as a necessary “shock therapy” for bilateral ties—painful but essential to dismantle the imbalanced producer-consumer dynamic built over 30 years of globalization. However, she cautions that abrupt decoupling risks mutual harm, urging Beijing to recognize its weakened position rather than “drag and wait for change.”
Overall, He Qinglian’s tone is pessimistic yet analytical: China faces a slow erosion driven by internal rot and external isolation, with the CCP’s survival tactics delaying but not averting deeper crises. She advocates for genuine democratization and fairness as the only escape, though she sees little prospect under current leadership.
References:
- He Qinglian’s X profile and posts (2024–2025)
- Predictions 2024: In the Year of the Dragon Will China See a Slow Decay or Sudden Collapse? (JAPAN Forward, Jan 2024)
- The Dark Side of China’s Development: He Qinglian’s The Pitfalls of Modernization (RIETI, 2003; referenced in 2025 contexts)