The Influencer E-commerce Lifecycle | Generated by AI

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Here’s a clear-headed way to think about the influencer + e-commerce model (especially the “shampoo/live-streaming/Douyin-style” playbook”) that exploded in China and is now global on TikTok.

Short-term success: extremely powerful and repeatable

That’s why so many young people rush in. The upside in the first 1–3 years looks almost too good to be true (and sometimes is).

Medium-term reality (3–7 years): most stall or decline

Once an influencer reaches 500k–3M followers, growth usually slows dramatically because:

Result: CPM (earnings per 1,000 followers) drops hard. Many who were making 7 figures RMB a year suddenly struggle to hit 6 figures.

Long-term value of the “personal brand”

This is the key question. There are actually three quite different outcomes I’ve observed:

  1. Cash out & exit (most common)
    Sell the account/shop to a bigger MCN (multi-channel network) or brand, take the money, disappear or pivot. This is rational. A 24-year-old who made $2–5M in 4 years and stops is not a failure.

  2. Turn the audience into a real brand (rare, but huge winners)
    Examples: Li Jiaqi (Austin Li), Viya, Xinba, or smaller ones like 董先生 (Mr. Dong selling pearls). They stopped being “just an influencer” and became the face of their own supply chain / private label. They own factories, logistics, IP. Their personal brand now has moat. These people will still be rich in 20 years.

  3. Slow decline / pivot (the majority after the peak)
    They keep live-streaming but with lower numbers, or they pivot to course-selling (“I teach you how to be an influencer”), or open physical stores, or just live off past savings. Not tragic, but no longer glamorous.

Are the “old-school private” people outdated?

Not at all. They’re just playing a completely different game.

Today in 2025, we’re seeing an interesting turning point:

My overall take

Neither is objectively better. They’re just different life stages and different risk appetites.

The 60-year-old factory owner who never posted a single video and the 25-year-old girl who became a millionaire selling shampoo on TikTok Live are often in the same room negotiating table—she wants his supply, he wants her traffic. They need each other more than either side admits.


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