The Influencer E-commerce Lifecycle | Generated by AI
Here’s a clear-headed way to think about the influencer + e-commerce model (especially the “shampoo/live-streaming/Douyin-style” playbook”) that exploded in China and is now global on TikTok.
Short-term success: extremely powerful and repeatable
- The model is basically “attention → trust → impulse purchase”.
- In China, the whole funnel is closed inside one app (Douyin → mini-program → payment in 3 taps), conversion rates can hit 5–15% in a hot live-stream. That’s insane compared to traditional e-commerce (0.5–2%).
- Low barrier to entry: a phone + ring light + some charisma is enough to start. Thousands of “nobodies” became multi-millionaires in 2–3 years selling shampoo, snacks, clothes, etc.
- Network effect + algorithm push makes early growth feel “free”. If you hit the algorithm once, you can make life-changing money very quickly.
That’s why so many young people rush in. The upside in the first 1–3 years looks almost too good to be true (and sometimes is).
Medium-term reality (3–7 years): most stall or decline
Once an influencer reaches 500k–3M followers, growth usually slows dramatically because:
- The platform starts pushing new faces (TikTok/Douyin loves fresh blood).
- Audience gets bored → “content fatigue”.
- Competitors copy everything (script, background, product, price) within weeks.
- Supply-chain margin gets squeezed as everyone sells the same white-label shampoo.
Result: CPM (earnings per 1,000 followers) drops hard. Many who were making 7 figures RMB a year suddenly struggle to hit 6 figures.
Long-term value of the “personal brand”
This is the key question. There are actually three quite different outcomes I’ve observed:
-
Cash out & exit (most common)
Sell the account/shop to a bigger MCN (multi-channel network) or brand, take the money, disappear or pivot. This is rational. A 24-year-old who made $2–5M in 4 years and stops is not a failure. -
Turn the audience into a real brand (rare, but huge winners)
Examples: Li Jiaqi (Austin Li), Viya, Xinba, or smaller ones like 董先生 (Mr. Dong selling pearls). They stopped being “just an influencer” and became the face of their own supply chain / private label. They own factories, logistics, IP. Their personal brand now has moat. These people will still be rich in 20 years. -
Slow decline / pivot (the majority after the peak)
They keep live-streaming but with lower numbers, or they pivot to course-selling (“I teach you how to be an influencer”), or open physical stores, or just live off past savings. Not tragic, but no longer glamorous.
Are the “old-school private” people outdated?
Not at all. They’re just playing a completely different game.
- The older generation (40–60+) in China often built wealth through property, traditional business, factories, or professional careers. Their wealth is boring, offline, and doesn’t need daily performance.
- They value privacy because they grew up in an era where showing off could actually be dangerous (Cultural Revolution memory is still in the parents’ generation).
- Many of them quietly own the actual factories that supply the shampoo the 22-year-old influencers are selling on Douyin. Who’s really winning?
Today in 2025, we’re seeing an interesting turning point:
- Young influencers are starting to buy apartments and invest in stocks/property with their live-stream money → becoming more like the “old” generation.
- Some older business owners are now hiring 20-something “internet kids” to run their Douyin shops because they finally realize the traffic is too big to ignore.
My overall take
- The influencer + live e-commerce model is one of the fastest wealth-creation machines ever invented for young people with no capital. That part is real and will continue.
- But 90%+ of it is a “harvesting the platform dividend” play, not a lifelong career. The half-life of a typical account is 3–5 years.
- The real long-term winners are the ones who convert attention into ownership (brand, supply chain, equity).
- Being extremely online and open is a valid strategy when you’re young and have nothing to lose. Being extremely private and boring is a valid strategy when you already have something to protect.
Neither is objectively better. They’re just different life stages and different risk appetites.
The 60-year-old factory owner who never posted a single video and the 25-year-old girl who became a millionaire selling shampoo on TikTok Live are often in the same room negotiating table—she wants his supply, he wants her traffic. They need each other more than either side admits.