Yuexiu District Housing Price Trend | Generated by AI

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Question: What has been the trend in Yuexiu District (Guangzhou) real estate prices over the last 10 years (2016–2026)?

Answer:

Yuexiu (越秀区) — Guangzhou’s core historic district, adjacent to Tianhe — has followed a classic boom-plateau-correction curve typical of first-tier Chinese urban cores:

Period Avg secondhand price (元/㎡) Notes
Jan 2016 30,169 Start of the 2016 credit-driven rally
Dec 2016 36,867 +22% within the year, +3.05% m/m in Dec alone
Full-year 2016 avg 32,577 #1 ranked district in Guangzhou that year, ahead of Tianhe (31,474)
Jan 2021 58,587 Post-pandemic recovery phase
Dec 2021 65,789 (new-build: 85,387) Full-year avg 63,597, #2 in Guangzhou behind Tianhe (72,711)
Peak: Sep 2023 70,251 Cyclical high over the trailing 5 years
Trough: Dec 2025 51,600 Down ~27% from the Sep 2023 peak
Apr 2026 55,900, +0.9% YoY Small stabilization/rebound
May 2026 55,401, avg total 5.27M CNY, -0.86% MoM Latest listing data

Read on the 10-year arc:

  1. 2016→2021 (5 years): ~+95%. This is the phase you’d expect from a supply-constrained core district during China’s leverage-driven property super-cycle — 2016 rate cuts + shantytown monetization + Guangzhou’s inbound migration all stacked.

  2. 2021→2023: flattening. Yuexiu topped out around late 2023 (70,251) — later than Shenzhen/Shanghai peaks (2021) because Guangzhou’s correction lagged the broader “three red lines” deleveraging cycle by ~18 months.

  3. 2023→2025: -27% correction. This tracks the nationwide secondhand-market downturn — falling new-home starts, developer defaults (Evergrande/Country Garden aftershocks), and a structural demand air pocket as mortgage rates and buyer expectations reset. Yuexiu held up better than outer districts (Nansha -15.7% YoY currently, Liwan -6.8% YoY) precisely because of its core-location scarcity — old inner-city plots with metro access and school-district (学区房) premiums.

  4. 2026 so far: stabilizing, not recovering. +0.9% YoY in April but -0.86% MoM in May — consistent with a market that’s found a floor rather than restarted a genuine up-cycle. Yuexiu remains the #2 priced district in Guangzhou behind Tianhe (62,100元/㎡, -12.29% YoY), well ahead of Haizhu (41,300), Liwan (35,700), and outer districts.

For your own decision-making (mortgage context noted): the 10-year real (inflation-adjusted) return here is much thinner than the nominal +70% headline suggests once you net out the 2023–2025 drawdown — anyone who bought at the 2023 peak is still underwater in nominal terms. Rental yield implied by the sale-to-rent ratio (售租比 62, meaning ~62 months of rent to equal sale price → gross yield ~1.6%/year) is low by global standards, which is standard for Chinese tier-1 core districts where price appreciation, not yield, has historically been the thesis — a thesis now under real stress.

References:

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